Geopolitical Tensions Reshaping Global Seafood Trade, Warns Rabobank

Editor/Mohamed shihab

New Tariffs and Sanctions on Key Products like Shrimp and Salmon are Creating Market Instability and Increasing Prices for Consumers in the U.S.

The global seafood industry is navigating a period of significant instability as escalating geopolitical tensions and trade disputes disrupt long-standing supply chains, according to a new report from Rabobank. The financial services giant highlights how tariffs and sanctions on major seafood products are fundamentally altering trade flows, creating market imbalances that affect both producers and consumers worldwide.

The report, titled "Caught in the current: Geopolitics threaten the global seafood industry," points to the U.S. as a key driver of this disruption. It notes that the shrimp sector, the world's most traded seafood product by value, has been particularly hard hit. The U.S. has implemented tariffs as high as 50% on certain shrimp imports, a measure aimed at countries in Asia. As a result, exporters have been forced to redirect massive volumes to other markets, leading to oversupply and sharp price fluctuations globally.

Impacts Across Key Seafood Categories

Salmon: This high-value species, with its extended production cycles and dependence on fresh delivery, is highly vulnerable to trade measures. Rabobank warns that any new U.S. tariffs on Canadian salmon would severely disrupt the market, given

·         that 87% of Canada's salmon exports are sent to the U.S. The uncertainty is already slowing new investment and could lead to higher consumer prices and reduced demand in the world's largest seafood market.

·         Freshwater Fish: The trade of species like tilapia and pangasius is also under pressure. A proposed 75% tariff on Chinese tilapia in the U.S. market could effectively eliminate one of the country's main supply sources. This is expected to cause a decline in American consumption of tilapia, while Chinese exporters may redirect their products to markets in Africa and Latin America, risking oversupply and depressed prices in those regions.

·         Groundfish: Sanctions on Russian-origin fish have caused significant strain in groundfish markets. The report notes that these measures have curtailed a once-cornerstone of international supply, driving up prices in European markets while creating a surplus of surimi in Asia, putting added pressure on producers there.

Rabobank concludes that the entire seafood sector is entering a prolonged phase of instability, which could limit long-term investment and hinder strategic planning. While producers in Asia, particularly in the shrimp and freshwater fish sectors, are expected to bear the brunt of the disruption, consumers in the U.S. face the prospect of higher retail prices and fewer product options.

In response, the bank advises companies to prioritize the diversification of their sourcing and sales channels. While such strategies are challenging in a cost-sensitive sector like seafood, the development of stronger domestic markets may offer a degree of relief. However, the overall outlook remains highly uncertain, with geopolitical factors now playing an unprecedented role in shaping the future of seafood trade.

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